497
ACUS01 KWNS 020555
SWODY1
SPC AC 020553
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST MON DEC 01 2025
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS, A FRONTAL-WAVE LOW -- INITIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE -- WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FL WHILE BEING
ABSORBED INTO A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN FL DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
THEREAFTER, A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, WHILE A RELATED SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.
..FL PANHANDLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD -- WITHIN A ZONE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PRECEDING THE FRONTAL-WAVE LOW. DESPITE POOR
DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES, UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SURFACE-BASED INFLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AROUND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CONDITIONALLY
SUPPORT A COUPLE TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SMALL LINE
SEGMENTS. LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE SEVERE RISK WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE WINDS VEER AND THE STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE ACCOMPANYING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FARTHER SOUTH, A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY APPROACH PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS -- AIDED BY AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, THIS AREA WILL BE
WELL REMOVED FROM THE DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT, SUGGESTING THAT
STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH COASTAL AREAS AMID THE
WEAK BUOYANCY.
...OUTER BANKS..
AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OFFSHORE -- WHERE
AMPLE PBL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS MAY TRACK NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE OUTER BANKS DURING
THE MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IMPACTING COASTAL AREAS IS
TOO LOW TO ADD SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..WEINMAN.. 12/02/2025
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