304
ACUS01 KWNS 041949
SWODY1
SPC AC 041947
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST THU DEC 04 2025
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST IN THE U.S. TODAY OR TONIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED OUTLOOK.
..SMITH.. 12/04/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1018 AM CST THU DEC 04 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
16 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOW A STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE MS DELTA REGION TO JUST OFF THE TX
GULF COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE
925-850 MB LAYER CONTINUES AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF DIABATIC
COOLING AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND ANY SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY, OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUOYANCY PROFILES
WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ROBUST CONVECTION. SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE TEXARKANA REGION, BUT LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EL LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR
BELOW -20 C, WHICH LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN LIGHTNING PRODUCTION BEYOND
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
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