046
ACUS02 KWNS 061651
SWODY2
SPC AC 061649
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CST SAT DEC 06 2025
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
..FLORIDA
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE EASTERN
U.S. ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A BELT OF 30-40 KT 850-700 MB
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA
ATOP A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS
WITH MODESTLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
SURFACE HEATING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MUTED BY CLOUD COVER, AND
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE, MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER WARM, LIMITING LAPSE RATES,
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK (GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG
MLCAPE). THIS SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, A
STRONGER, ROTATING STORM OFFSHORE FROM WEST-CENTRAL FL COULD
APPROACH THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE A
STRONG GUST OR WATERSPOUT COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY, OVER ALL
RISK APPEARS TOO LOW/CONDITIONAL, AND LIMITED IN SPATIAL EXTENT, TO
INCLUDE PROBABILITIES.
..LEITMAN.. 12/06/2025
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