053
ACUS03 KWNS 070716
SWODY3
SPC AC 070714
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CST SUN DEC 07 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE TO THE
LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER FLOW IMPACTING THE U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
BROAD RIDGING IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN MID-LATITUDE
PACIFIC INTO THE U.S. INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES, WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGHING IS LIKELY TO BE
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION, DIGGING
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE LEE OF THE CREST OF THE RIDGE.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPIDLY MIGRATING
CYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE,
MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PRECEDED BY STRENGTHENING FLOW
VEERING TO AN INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF
COAST VICINITY.
EVEN AS THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO MODIFY TO THE NORTH OF A
STALLING AND WEAKENING FRONT, SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GULF BASIN, APPRECIABLE INLAND MOISTURE IS UNLIKELY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND.
..KERR.. 12/07/2025
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