761
ACUS01 KWNS 071234
SWODY1
SPC AC 071232
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 AM CST SUN DEC 07 2025
VALID 071300Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..FLORIDA PENINSULA
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST GULF ALONG A LARGELY WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONT. DOWNSTREAM
CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
PRONOUNCED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WITHIN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY (REFERENCE 12Z SOUNDING FROM TBW). BUT, ADEQUATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL ROTATION. WITH A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL FL, A FEW STRONG GUSTS
CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
..GLEASON/JEWELL.. 12/07/2025
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