620
ACUS01 KWNS 071620
SWODY1
SPC AC 071619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST SUN DEC 07 2025
VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING.
..FLORIDA PENINSULA
LATE MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE COMPOSITE SHOWS A RAIN SHIELD AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALONG A WEST-EAST ORIENTED, SOUTHWARD-SAGGING
FRONT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. THIS RAIN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLY
THE RESULT OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF AMERICA WITHIN THE BASE OF A LARGER-SCALE MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH FL LATE TODAY AND EAST OF THE FL/GA
COASTS BY MID-LATE EVENING.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEAR/NORTH OF I-4 AND
COMBINE WITH MEAGER LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES TO THEREBY
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
PROBABLY YIELD A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE PRIOR TO AN INCREASING
PREVALENCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF INTO
THE WEST/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TOWARDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AMPLE MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
STORM-SCALE ROTATION CONTINGENT ON A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG UPDRAFT OR
TWO DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS ZONE OF CONVECTION. THE RISK FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS, MAINLY DURING THE 22-08 UTC PERIOD,
AS THIS THREAT SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
..SMITH/BARNES.. 12/07/2025
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