601
ACUS11 KWNS 072157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072156
FLZ000-080030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CST SUN DEC 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 072156Z - 080030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A STORM CLUSTER HAS INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GULF, WHERE AN OFFSHORE BUOY RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST
OF 52 KT AT 2050 UTC. THIS STORM CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND SURFACE LOW, AS EVIDENCED BY
RATHER STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AT THE BUOY PRECEDING THE SEVERE GUST.
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS STORM CLUSTER, MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA,
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM NEAR/SOUTH OF TAMPA
EASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
WEAK LAPSE RATES (AS OBSERVED IN THE 18Z TBW SOUNDING) WILL TEND TO
LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
ANY ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES THAT APPROACH THE COAST, OR DEVELOP
INLAND NEAR THE BOUNDARY, MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST WITHIN THE
FAVORABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN 0-2 KM AGL FLOW HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED IN
THE KTBW VWP, WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN MAINTENANCE OF ANY ORGANIZED
CELLS/CLUSTERS, AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SRH FOR LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION.
A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, WHERE AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER OFFSHORE STORM
STRUCTURES AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 12/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TBW...
LAT...LON 28368332 28248220 28138168 27708170 26928200 26718206
26948288 27428366 28368332
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page