882
ACUS01 KWNS 080053
SWODY1
SPC AC 080051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST SUN DEC 07 2025
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
..SUMMARY
A BRIEF TORNADO AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY
THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
..SOUTH-CENTRAL FL
A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONT HAS BEEN SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL FL OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THE BULK OF CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED AS IT SPREAD ACROSS THE PENINSULA, WITH DEEPER/RENEWED
UPDRAFTS HOLDING OFF THE GULF COAST, SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY TO WEST
OF FORT MYERS. 23Z XMR AND 00Z TBW SOUNDINGS SAMPLED LESS-THAN-MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE, WHICH WILL
REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR TO INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION OVER LAND.
BUT STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (EFFECTIVE BULK VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50
KTS) AND MODERATE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH ENHANCEMENT WILL MAINTAIN A
LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO AND STRONG WIND GUST THREAT THROUGH LATE
EVENING. THIS MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR THE JUNCTURE OF THE EASTERN GULF
CONVECTION WITH THE UNDERCUTTING BOUNDARY. WITH ONLY MINOR
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, OFFSHORE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PENINSULA SHOULD DIMINISH. SEE MCD 2253
FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION.
..GRAMS.. 12/08/2025
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