951
ACUS01 KWNS 081940
SWODY1
SPC AC 081938
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CST MON DEC 08 2025
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
RECENT UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTH FL HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INTENSIFY WITHIN THE MODESTLY BUOYANT BUT WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE.
..MOORE.. 12/08/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1003 AM CST MON DEC 08 2025/
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, ONE CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND THE OTHER MOVING TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES, CONTINUING EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD AS ANOTHER PAIR
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MORE OF THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE A LOW,
CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE SC COAST, PROGRESSES
NORTHEASTWARD.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
LOW THROUGH CENTRAL FL, WHICH IS THE ONLY AREA ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CONUS WITH ANY NOTABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTH FL
PRECEDING THIS FRONT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 70S, AND MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES MODEST BUOYANCY OVER THE REGION. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE MODEST AND MUCH OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THIS REGION, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN PLACE, AND THERE IS A
VERY-LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR A DAMAGING GUST OR TWO. HOWEVER,
LIMITED UPDRAFT DEPTH AND/OR PERSISTENCE SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL.
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