720
ACUS03 KWNS 100727
SWODY3
SPC AC 100726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
U.S. FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR TEXAS COASTAL AREAS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
..DISCUSSION
DOWNSTREAM OF A BLOCKING MID-LEVEL HIGH, MAINTAINING NEAR/NORTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS, IT APPEARS THAT THE EVOLVING FLOW MAY INCLUDE A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BUILDING INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS, DIGGING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS FARTHER DOWNSTREAM MAY REINFORCE LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH GREAT
LAKES VICINITY. HOWEVER, IN GENERAL, MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC REGIME TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO LOSE AMPLITUDE, WITH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT
TENDING TO RECEDE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
VALLEYS AND MID ATLANTIC. IN LOWER LEVELS, A LEADING SURGE OF
COLDER AIR TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MAY STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS VICINITY BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
IN LOWER LATITUDES, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS MAY RISE ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGING, AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA, DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH NORTHWESTERN GULF BASIN. BENEATH
THIS REGIME, IT APPEARS THAT GRADUAL GULF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING
WILL CONTINUE. IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT DESTABILIZATION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BECOME
CONDUCIVE TO WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
..KERR.. 12/10/2025
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