147
ACUS01 KWNS 121622
SWODY1
SPC AC 121620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
..DISCUSSION
MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MX. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT -- REMAINING SOUTH OF TX. IN
RESPONSE, A MODEST INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEEPEN
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE/ERODE INHIBITION AND YIELD WEAK
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND LOWER TX COAST
OVERNIGHT. WHILE MOST DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E PLUME OFFSHORE, STRENGTHENING COASTAL
CONVERGENCE AMID THE DEEPENING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A
COUPLE STORMS OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS IN THE 08-12Z TIME
FRAME. A REMNANT WARM LAYER ALOFT AND WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY OVER LAND AREAS.
..WEINMAN.. 12/12/2025
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