300
ACUS01 KWNS 121946
SWODY1
SPC AC 121945
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
..20Z UPDATE
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST.
..GRAMS.. 12/12/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1020 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025/
..DISCUSSION
MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MX. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT -- REMAINING SOUTH OF TX. IN
RESPONSE, A MODEST INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEEPEN
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE/ERODE INHIBITION AND YIELD WEAK
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND LOWER TX COAST
OVERNIGHT. WHILE MOST DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E PLUME OFFSHORE, STRENGTHENING COASTAL
CONVERGENCE AMID THE DEEPENING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A
COUPLE STORMS OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS IN THE 08-12Z TIME
FRAME. A REMNANT WARM LAYER ALOFT AND WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY OVER LAND AREAS.
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