095
ACUS01 KWNS 131605
SWODY1
SPC AC 131604
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
VALID 131630Z - 141200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
..SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS CONFIRM NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHALLOW
SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
AFTER DARK FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA TO RESULT IN A FEW
PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS WEAK, AND LIMITED CAPE WILL
PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST CORES TONIGHT.
..FL
A LOW-LATITUDE DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE GULF AND A NORTHWARD
MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS/FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY, AND ALSO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
UNLIKELY WITH THESE SCENARIOS.
..HART/DEAN.. 12/13/2025
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