610
ACUS01 KWNS 131949
SWODY1
SPC AC 131948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAY TO THE THUNDER LINE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TX GULF COAST WHERE A
COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE CONVECTION IS SPREADING ONSHORE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHERN LA, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LIMITED.
..MOORE.. 12/13/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1004 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025/
..SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS CONFIRM NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHALLOW
SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
AFTER DARK FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA TO RESULT IN A FEW
PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS WEAK, AND LIMITED CAPE WILL
PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST CORES TONIGHT.
..FL
A LOW-LATITUDE DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE GULF AND A NORTHWARD
MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS/FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY, AND ALSO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
UNLIKELY WITH THESE SCENARIOS.
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