854
ACUS02 KWNS 160655
SWODY2
SPC AC 160654
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN
AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE
OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL AMPLIFY AS IT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. A VERY STRONG SURFACE LOW (~985MB) WILL MOVE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE LOW. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN THE DAY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN IDAHO/EASTERN
WASHINGTON INTO EASTERN OREGON. IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
..NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY
A LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG A STRONG COLD
FRONT AT 12Z WEDNESDAY SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN OR/WA INTO NORTHERN
IDAHO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY, BUT WITH
ADDITIONAL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT, SOME STRONGER CORES WITHIN THE
LINE MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHTNING GENERATION. IN ADDITION, A
VERY STRONG WIND PROFILE IS PRESENT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITHIN THIS LINE. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IS THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MARGINAL RISK.
..MIDWEST
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
OZARKS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE VERY END OF THE DAY 2
PERIOD (09-12Z THU) THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE
RAPIDLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK, BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE BY 12Z
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITHIN THIS LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS, COMBINED WITH INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
..BENTLEY.. 12/16/2025
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