395
FNUS22 KWNS 161854
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
REQUIRED - MAINLY TO BETTER ALIGN THE ELEVATED RISK AREA WITH WHERE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST WITHIN CO FRONT
RANGE. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY STRONG (60-75 MPH) WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHEAST WY AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FRONT RANGE. RH REDUCTIONS WITHIN THIS REGIME
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING ONLY A WEAK
SIGNAL FOR SUB-20% RH FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO. HOWEVER, THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS COUPLED WITH DRYING FINE FUELS MAY COMPENSATE
FOR THE MARGINAL RH VALUES AND SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
SPREAD, WARRANTING THE WESTWARD EXPANSION. A SOUTHWARD EXPANSION
ALONG THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IN NM WAS ALSO MADE WHERE DOWNSLOPE
WARMING/DRYING SHOULD PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE 15-20% RANGE AS
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
..MOORE.. 12/16/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1235 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
THE NORTHWESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ROUGHLY PERPENDICULAR TO
THE TERRAIN. IN THE PLAINS, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP/DEEPEN IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE OF RH REDUCTION IS NOT OVERLY HIGH, BUT
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND PATTERN, POCKETS OF 15-25% ARE
POSSIBLE. WITH FUELS CONTINUING TO DRY IN THE REGION, THEY WILL BE
AT LEAST MARGINALLY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD. WINDS ARE THE MORE
CONFIDENT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. 15-20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. WITHIN
TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS, 20-25 MPH IS MORE PROBABLE ALONG WITH EVEN
HIGHER WIND GUSTS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED RH REDUCTION AND FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
RH OF 10-20% CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN FARTHER NORTH. WINDS SHOULD STILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONG, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE TERRAIN. 15-20 MPH WILL BE
MOST COMMON WITH TERRAIN GAPS LIKELY BEING HIGHER. ELEVATED
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD REACH INTO PARTS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS, BUT CURRENT FUEL INDICES SUGGEST LIMITED
RISK FOR IGNITIONS/SPREAD AT THIS TIME.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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