886
FNUS21 KWNS 171659
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
VALID 171700Z - 181200Z
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR EXPANSIONS
MADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS TO REFLECT LATEST HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE. 16 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE ALONG THE NORTHERN CO FRONT RANGE, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON (MAINLY BETWEEN 20-00 UTC) AS THE
MID-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW SEVERE RH REDUCTIONS WILL BE IN THE LEE OF THE
IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE WHERE PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS RH MINIMUMS NEAR 20%, MORNING SOLUTIONS DON'T APPEAR
TO BE ACCURATELY CAPTURING RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER NOTED IN GOES IMAGERY THAN DEPICTED IN RECENT
HRRR/RRFS RUNS. THIS CONTINUES TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, THOUGH LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY EMERGE IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING CAN OCCUR.
REGARDLESS, THE STRONG WINDS COUPLED WITH SLOWLY INCREASING ERC
VALUES (NEAR THE 70TH PERCENTILE) SHOULD STILL SUPPORT A WIND-DRIVEN
FIRE WEATHER RISK. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.
..MOORE.. 12/17/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1150 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND REACH THE
PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE ROCKIES.
THIS, COUPLED WITH A STRONG CROSS-DIVIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WILL
FOSTER STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS AND STRONGER GUSTS IN THE IMMEDIATE
LEE OF THE TERRAIN. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WINDS WILL BE PROBABLE IN
THE TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS. A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 60-70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH, 15-20 MPH
WILL BECOME MORE COMMON. RH WILL BE ABOVE ELEVATED CRITERIA IN MANY
PLACES, BUT 15-25% WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO.
FARTHER SOUTH, RH WILL MORE LIKELY BE AROUND 15-20%. WITH FUELS
HAVING CONTINUED TO DRY, THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL STILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
..PIEDMONT
DRY AND MODESTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITHIN THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH COULD FALL AS LOW AS 20-25%, BUT THERE IS
VARIABILITY WITHIN GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT AROUND
10 MPH. LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE
DURATION/SPATIAL EXTENT IS TOO LIMITED AND UNCERTAIN FOR HIGHLIGHTS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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