909
ACUS11 KWNS 181644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181644
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181644Z - 181845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL PROCEED EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAY RESULT IN SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE
ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE OVERALL LIMITED
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM KLSX SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED,
BUT SHALLOW, BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A STRONG
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. LATEST HRRR/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
MINIMAL MLCAPE (AROUND 100 J/KG) THAT IS CONFINED TO THE LOWEST FEW
KILOMETERS WHERE LAPSE RATES NEAR 700 MB ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME CONVECTIVE AUGMENTATION OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT.
DESPITE THE VERY POOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, THE KLSX VWP
DEPICTS 40-50 KNOT FLOW WITHIN THE LOWEST KILOMETER, WHICH MAY MIX
TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL, SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE (GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KNOTS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN OBSERVED ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT). THE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FORECAST TO SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, SO WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..MOORE/GLEASON.. 12/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 38368822 37058867 36568923 36488994 36529068 36659115
36869160 37139182 37339185 38119111 39129056 39879034
40098991 39938921 39648855 39258817 38368822
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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