397
ACUS11 KWNS 182236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182236
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-190000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MS...WESTERN/NORTHERN AL...SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 182236Z - 190000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADIC SUPERCELL OR TWO
APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SHOULD
SPREAD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TO NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH
MID-EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN SWATH OF SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED FROM NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL MS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE AXIS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOW 60S NORTH
TO UPPER 60S SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS AXIS, WITH 70S FARTHER SOUTH AND
BEHIND THIS CONVECTION. THIS HAS YIELDED A PLUME OF MODEST MLCAPE
FROM 500-1000 J/KG THAT SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AL THIS EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS CONDUCIVE TO A FEW SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING AND BEING MAINTAINED WITHIN THIS REGIME. A TORNADIC
SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CONVECTION PROBABLY WEAKENS
LATER IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES DEEPER INTO AL.
..GRAMS/SMITH.. 12/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34778620 33388682 32918729 32528790 32478836 32488907
32818930 34458838 34988812 35378733 35358647 34778620
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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