839
ACUS11 KWNS 190055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190054
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-190230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 642...
VALID 190054Z - 190230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 642 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LIMITED TORNADO AND STRONG GUST THREATS SHOULD PERSIST FOR
AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS AS BROKEN BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN ALABAMA. AN ADDITIONAL WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...EARLIER SUPERCELLS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED, BUT ONE IS
STILL ONGOING IN NEWTON COUNTY, MS. THE EAST-CENTRAL MS/WESTERN AL
AREA WILL HAVE THE PRIMARY NEAR-TERM TORNADO THREAT, OWING TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO MODEST BUT WEAKENING BUOYANCY SAMPLED BY THE 00Z JAN
SOUNDING. 5.5 TO 6 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE JAN/BNA/BMX
SOUNDINGS WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS.
BUT ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND PERSISTENT LOW 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. FARTHER
NORTH-NORTHEAST, FASTER PROPAGATION OF COLD FRONT CONVECTION
RELATIVE TO THE PRE-FRONTAL SWATH SHOULD YIELD CONSOLIDATION INTO A
QLCS THAT PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. STRONG GUSTS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BECOMES NEGLIGIBLE, EAST AND NORTH OF
CENTRAL AL WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS PERSIST.
..GRAMS/SMITH.. 12/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 32538919 32868837 33718783 34618766 35068736 35468708
35688639 35648624 35608585 35238575 34808582 34388589
33958607 33538627 32948704 32568752 32408794 32258830
32538919
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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