090
ACUS02 KWNS 221714
SWODY2
SPC AC 221712
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
AN EXPANSIVE AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DAY2/TUESDAY. AS
THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES, TROUGHING ON THE FLANKS OF THE RIDGE WILL
ALSO STRENGTHEN. THE WESTERN MOST TROUGH, AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN IT WILL LIKELY REACH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CA COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ASCENT AND FLOW ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW
AND SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF COASTAL CA/OR.
..WEST COAST
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST, STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AND SUPPORT INLAND TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS MUCH OF COAST AND THE CA CENTRAL VALLEY. COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THIS AIR MASS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
DESTABILIZATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION, CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, THE SCANT
BUOYANCY AND OVERNIGHT TIMING SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW.
ELSEWHERE, MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND FAR SOUTH TX BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AS THE SURFACE
REFLECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD. DESPITE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS, LITTLE TO NO ASCENT AND WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF FAR
SOUTH TX.
..LYONS.. 12/22/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page