861
ACUS02 KWNS 241730
SWODY2
SPC AC 241728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ALONG PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.
..CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
A BROAD UPPER LOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, A
STREAM OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONGOING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
CONTINUE OVERSPREADING MUCH OF CALIFORNIA WHERE NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK, BUT
MUCAPE PEAKING AROUND 400 J/KG AMIDST THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW COULD
SUPPORT A COUPLE MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.
ONE OF THE MORE INTENSE EMBEDDED FEATURES WILL LIKELY MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL CA EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WA THURSDAY EVENING. A STRONG OFFSHORE LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A BROKEN BAND OF LOW-TOPPED
STORMS MOVING ONSHORE EARLY. BENEATH A 50 TO 60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET, FLOW ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE SUPPORTING
MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
FEW KM COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO WITH ANY TRANSIENTLY ORGANIZED
STORMS.
A SECOND EMBEDDED IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST FARTHER
SOUTH INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND A SECOND
WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER BAND OF LOW-TOPPED
STORMS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING BUOYANCY FOR THIS
ROUND GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT TIMING AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN PRIOR.
STILL, SOME CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS A NARROW FRONTAL BAND OF LOW-TOPPED
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS OR A BRIEF TORNADO MOVING ONSHORE
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY.
..LYONS.. 12/24/2025
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