080
ACUS11 KWNS 250746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250746
CAZ000-251015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 250746Z - 251015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF TORNADO IS INCREASING, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED
BETWEEN 09-12Z.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 0730Z, RADAR DATA FROM KMUX SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE,
STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH GRADUALLY
DEEPENING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. AS A ROBUST
NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET CONTINUE TOWARD
THE COAST, THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME. DESPITE
LIMITED BUOYANCY, THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR A MODEST UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. GIVEN THE
STRONGLY FORCED NATURE AND 50+ KT FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL, THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AIDED BY UPWARDS OF 200 M2/S2 0-1 KM
SRH AND AT LEAST NEUTRAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC STABILITY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
..WEINMAN/SMITH.. 12/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...STO...MTR...EKA...
LAT...LON 36862224 37742283 38562351 39312403 39912430 40352457
40682447 40782431 40702392 40392355 40002312 39372247
38552192 37162146 36682149 36502170 36432200 36862224
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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