838
ACUS11 KWNS 251012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251012
CAZ000-251115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SAN FRANCISCO BAY VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 251012Z - 251115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY VICINITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS FROM KMUX SHOW AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA. THESE SMALL LINEAR STRUCTURES WITH EMBEDDED ROTATION WILL
POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY MOVE ASHORE DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. WHILE LESS CERTAIN, A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT, GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR (AROUND 450
M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH PER KMUX VWP). THE OVERALL RISK IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOCALIZED FOR A WATCH.
..WEINMAN/SMITH.. 12/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...STO...MTR...
LAT...LON 37062238 37672265 38192302 38342279 38282250 38052217
37452191 36982181 36822198 36812215 37062238
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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