376
ACUS11 KWNS 261041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261040
MIZ000-261645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0440 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 261040Z - 261645Z
SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING THE 12-16Z TIME FRAME.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR DATA SHOWS A SWATH OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD INTO LOWER MI -- WHERE SURFACE
PRESSURE IS FALLING RAPIDLY (-4 TO -5 MB IN THE LAST TWO HOURS OVER
WEST-CENTRAL LOWER MI). THIS ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD-ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND GAINS SOME AMPLITUDE, DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
STRENGTHEN WHILE FOCUSING OVER LOWER MI. AS A RESULT, PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THE LOW/MID-LEVELS
SATURATE AMID THE STRENGTHENING ASCENT. ADDITIONALLY, STEEPENING
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND A
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION RATES.
AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS, A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 850 MB WILL FAVOR COMPLETE MELTING OF DESCENDING
HYDROMETEORS BEFORE RE-FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. THE STRONG LIFT
(WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT) AND AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL
PROFILE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FREEZING RAIN RATES UPWARDS OF 0.05
INCHES PER HOUR (LOCALLY HIGHER UNDER THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED CORES). THE ONSET OF THE HEAVIER RATES IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
12-16Z, BUT SHOULD PERSIST BEYOND THAT PERIOD WHILE SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MI.
..WEINMAN.. 12/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42448488 42888549 43378619 43738637 43958622 44168555
44138477 43868383 43478256 43038230 42188279 41918342
42018398 42448488
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