988
ACUS01 KWNS 271618
SWODY1
SPC AC 271616
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CONUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS UPPER TROUGH, MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHTNING WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT CAN DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID
MO VALLEY. INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT WEAK MUCAPE AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KS INTO MO AND
CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MUCAPE FORECAST
TO REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 750 J/KG, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
HAIL WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEARS LOW EVEN THOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG.
..GLEASON/WENDT.. 12/27/2025
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