902
ACUS01 KWNS 271936
SWODY1
SPC AC 271934
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL UNTIL AROUND/AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO AND WESTERN IL. SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
..MOORE.. 12/27/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1016 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025/
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CONUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS UPPER TROUGH, MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHTNING WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT CAN DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID
MO VALLEY. INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT WEAK MUCAPE AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KS INTO MO AND
CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MUCAPE FORECAST
TO REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 750 J/KG, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
HAIL WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEARS LOW EVEN THOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG.
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