114
ACUS02 KWNS 280545
SWODY2
SPC AC 280543
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR LAKE HURON AT 12Z MONDAY WILL OCCLUDE AS
IT TRACKS INTO QC. A FULL-LATITUDE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT WILL ARC
ACROSS NY TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GULF ON MONDAY MORNING,
BEFORE CLEARING THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SCANT ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY BE PRESENT IN TWO REGIMES ON MONDAY
MORNING. ONE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE SECOND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE IN DEEP SOUTH TX. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES, WHILE NONZERO,
STILL APPEAR TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT IN BOTH AREAS. IN BETWEEN, WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST.
..GRAMS.. 12/28/2025
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