857
ACUS11 KWNS 281645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281644
INZ000-ILZ000-281845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281644Z - 281845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL (NEAR 1 INCH DIAMETER) AND
WIND DAMAGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 19Z ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. A WATCH APPEARS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORM CLUSTER WITH SOME SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS, AND A HISTORY OF 1 INCH HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE,
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 50-55 KT ACROSS SOUTHERN
LIVINGSTON AND NORTHERN FORD COS. IL. THIS STORM CLUSTER IS
TRACKING NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT, AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE/EMBEDDED SPEED MAX APPROACHING CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL.
MODIFIED SHORT-TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE UPDRAFTS ARE
ROOTED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SURFACE NEAR THE WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S, WHILE SOMEWHAT LARGER SURFACE-BASED
CAPE IS CONFINED TO AREAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 60S. LONG HODOGRAPHS/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BEFORE THE STORMS OUTPACE THE
SOMEWHAT GREATER BUOYANCY IN IL, BUT THE OVERALL HAIL/WIND THREAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY RATHER POOR LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SUCH,
A WATCH REMAINS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.
..THOMPSON/GLEASON.. 12/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...
LAT...LON 40928665 40768790 40788812 41018835 41188827 41478784
41598736 41758682 41688642 41228631 40928665
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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