859
ACUS03 KWNS 281845
SWODY3
SPC AC 281844
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE
U.S. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF A BROAD AND STILL DEEPENING
CYCLONE WILL MIGRATE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY,
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY VICINITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT
MID-LEVELS, IT APPEARS THAT THE BROADENING CIRCULATION WILL BE
REINFORCED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION DIGGING FROM THE
HIGHER LATITUDES. SURROUNDING THIS LOW, CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY
ENCOMPASS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH SOME FURTHER AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE GULF
BASIN INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS. BENEATH THIS REGIME, COOL
SURFACE RIDGING ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
GULF COAST AND GULF BASIN IS FORECAST TO ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN.
UPSTREAM, A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC MAY GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE IN ADVANCE OF MORE
NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE EASTERN
PACIFIC. HOWEVER, A SUBSTANTIVE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE
LOW TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST APPEARS UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST. WHILE LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE RETURN EMANATING FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC
MAY OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO GREAT BASIN, IT IS
STILL NOT CLEAR THAT THIS WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING (ALTHOUGH NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE LAS VEGAS, NV VICINITY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT SUGGEST THAT THIS MIGHT NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION).
..KERR.. 12/28/2025
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