532
ACUS11 KWNS 290241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290240
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-290745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0840 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 290240Z - 290745Z
SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH AT LEAST .06 INCH/3 HOUR ACCRETION RATES
POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE HIGHEST ACCRETION RATES,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS, WOULD BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION...WARM-AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION, WITHIN THE 925-700 MB
LAYER, IS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING, DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE AND ACCOMPANYING 100+ KT
500 MB JET STREAK. A BROAD SHIELD OF RAINFALL IS OVERSPREADING A
SURFACE LAYER THAT HAS BEEN AND REMAINS WELL BELOW FREEZING IN
SEVERAL LOCALES. WHILE WARM-AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IS STRONG, THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT TAKE
PLACE UNTIL AFTER 3 AM EST. HEAVIER WAA-INDUCED RAINFALL ATOP A
PERSISTENT SUB-FREEZING SURFACE IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR APPRECIABLE
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. AN ICE STORM IS POSSIBLE,
WITH OVER .06/3 HOUR ACCUMULATION RATES POTENTIALLY BECOMING
COMMONPLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. HERE, AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN RATES SHOULD FALL INTO A
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER THE LONGEST, WITH 32+ F SURFACE
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH, REACHING THIS REGION MUCH
LATER TONIGHT.
..SQUITIERI.. 12/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43187107 42647172 42517236 42437317 42477421 42687531
42897580 44127560 44687545 45027472 45107260 44957172
44287122 43187107
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