881
ACUS11 KWNS 290932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290932
MIZ000-291530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 290932Z - 291530Z
SUMMARY...BANDED HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR AND
PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
DISCUSSION...TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM (983 MB SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE HURON), SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER
LIFT IS OVERSPREADING A COLD, DEEPLY SATURATED PROFILE OVER UPPER MI
AND VICINITY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LIFT THROUGH A DEEP/SATURATED
DGZ AND ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT CRYSTAL GROWTH
AND AGGREGATION. AS AS RESULT, WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED, WITH EVEN
HIGHER RATES TO AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
BENEATH THE CORE OF MORE ORGANIZED BANDING. IN ADDITION TO THESE
SUBSTANTIAL AND PROLONGED RATES, A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERIPHERAL TO THE DEEP SURFACE LOW AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
(50-60-KT FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL PER MQT VWP) WILL PROMOTE
40-50 MPH GUSTS AND INTERMITTENT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.
..WEINMAN.. 12/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...
LAT...LON 45458526 45558610 45788701 46168815 46508849 46718842
46828799 46578760 46408716 46428653 46618622 46738507
46538424 46158371 45818366 45538398 45398451 45458526
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