494
ACUS03 KWNS 300734
SWODY3
SPC AC 300733
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON NEW YEAR'S DAY ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA.
..SOUTHERN CA TO AZ
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A COMPACT/LOWER-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST, MODELS DIFFER ON ITS
SPATIAL PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL DAMPENING INLAND ON THURSDAY AMID A
BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEST DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS RENDERS UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DEGREE
OF MESOSCALE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCEMENT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHERN CA
BETWEEN 12-18Z, WHICH WILL BE CRUCIAL TO ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AMID A MEAGER BUOYANCY PROFILE. IN ADDITION,
WITH LATITUDINAL INCONSISTENCY IN PLACEMENT OF THE COMPACT MID-LEVEL
COLD CORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DEGREE OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE ON THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OTHER MODELS, ALONG
WITH THE LATEST GEFS AND YESTERDAY'S ECENS ML GUIDANCE, INDICATE
NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
FARTHER INLAND, BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN SCANT EAST OF THE PENINSULAR
RANGES. BUT IT MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING FLASHES THAT
YIELD VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 12/30/2025
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