007
ACUS48 KWNS 020940
SWOD48
SPC AC 020939
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CST FRI JAN 02 2026
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
..DISCUSSION
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES, CENTERED ON EASTERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
MID TO LATE WEEK. WHILE DAY-TO-DAY PREDICTABILITY IS LOW, THE
BROADER SIGNAL HINTS AT POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE DAYS OF AT LEAST
LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE DURING D6-9/WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
INITIAL CONCERN IS WITH THE DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION OF A LOWER-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS BAJA CA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO EARLY IN THE
WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH SPATIOTEMPORAL ASPECTS OF
THIS WAVE BY MID-WEEK. BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS WAVE TO
INTERACT WITH A MODIFYING WARM-MOIST SECTOR FROM THE WESTERN GULF
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. FASTER GUIDANCE INDICATES
SEVERE-STORM POTENTIAL MAY COMMENCE BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE WEST
LATE WEEK. THIS MAY YIELD AN EXPANSIVE SWATH OF FAST MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST.
GIVEN A LACK OF FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH THE
LEAD WAVE, SEASONABLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY OVERLAP A PORTION
OF THIS FAST FLOW REGIME AROUND FRIDAY-SATURDAY. LATEST NSSL GEFS ML
V1.2 PROBS APPEAR REASONABLE WITH DEPICTIONS OF 5 PERCENT PEAK PROBS
ON D6-7, FOLLOWED BY 10 PERCENT AREAS ON D8-9.
..GRAMS.. 01/02/2026
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