248
ACUS48 KWNS 030932
SWOD48
SPC AC 030931
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CST SAT JAN 03 2026
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
..DISCUSSION
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES BY LATE WEEK. GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS LARGE
WITH THE HANDLING OF A LOWER-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
INITIALLY BE OFF THE SOUTHERN CA/BAJA CA COAST ON D4/TUESDAY.
NON-ECMWF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LARGELY EJECT THIS WAVE QUICKLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY LATE
D5/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF, EC-AIFS, AND AIGFS MAINTAIN A SLOWER
AND MORE REASONABLE SCENARIO OF PROGRESSION THROUGH D6/THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PROBABLY INTERACT WITH A MODIFYING WARM-MOIST SECTOR FROM
THE WESTERN GULF, WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IN A PORTION OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAIL DIFFERENCES EXIST EVEN
AMONG THE PREFERRED SLOWER GUIDANCE AND THE MAJORITY OF GEFS/ECENS
ML PROBS REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY.
FOR THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST, LATEST EC-AIFS AND THE
ECMWF NOW DEPICT POTENTIAL OF A NEGATIVE-TILT EVOLUTION COMPARED TO
PRIOR RUNS AND OTHER GUIDANCE. SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE WITHIN THE
ECENS FOR BOTH THE AI/NON-AI, INDICATIVE OF A POORLY PREDICTABLE
PATTERN FOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH.
BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FAST MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES OVERLAPPING
SEASONABLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EMANATING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN
GULF, AND SOME SCENARIOS INDICATIVE OF CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES, A SEVERE AREA HIGHLIGHT MAY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED ON
D7/FRIDAY.
..GRAMS.. 01/03/2026
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