629
ACUS01 KWNS 031639
SWODY1
SPC AC 031638
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 AM CST SAT JAN 03 2026
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SACRAMENTO
AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS TO COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON.
..SOUTHEAST
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS PRECEDES A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING FRONT, WITH A BAND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO A NOTABLE PRE-FRONTAL FACTOR ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS CONVECTION AND WEAK
NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD EFFECTIVELY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL
TO ITS NORTH, WHILE POTENTIAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
MORE PROBABLE ON ITS WESTERN FLANK ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY OTHER PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN
FLORIDA.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO REMAIN VEERED AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
LIMITING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. EVEN SO, STRONG MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING
IN LONG HODOGRAPHS THAT COULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.
PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS, ALTHOUGH A
LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO EXISTS AS WELL. SOME
ISOLATED HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORMS NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND OVER THE REGION TODAY. MODESTLY BROKEN CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SOMEWHAT INCREASED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING, WITH
THE LEAD PORTION OF THESE STORMS, INCLUDING A FEW LOW-TOPPED
ROTATING STORMS, LOCATED AROUND 25-50 MILES OFF THE FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AS OF 16Z/8AM PST. WITH A STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD, A FEW OF THESE STRONGER, MORE ORGANIZED, AND POTENTIALLY
ROTATING STORMS COULD MOVE INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WITH DAMAGING WIND
AND/OR WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM
DETAILS, SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 4.
ADDITIONALLY, INTO THE AFTERNOON, SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
THE SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS, COULD RESULT IN
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE FOR AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL
CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO.
..GUYER/THORNTON.. 01/03/2026
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