254
ACUS48 KWNS 040932
SWOD48
SPC AC 040931
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CST SUN JAN 04 2026
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
..DISCUSSION
A LOW-LATITUDE CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA CA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY SHOULD
EVOLVE BACK INTO AN OPEN WAVE, AIDED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST. EC-AIFS AND
AIGFS REMAIN THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE FOR A MORE PROBABLE SLOWER
EJECTION OF THE LOW-LATITUDE WAVE ONTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEE CYCLONE AS A
MODIFYING WARM-MOIST SECTOR ADVECTS NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF. BUT
YESTERDAY'S NCAR ECENS-BASED ML GUIDANCE REMAINS BELOW 5 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY, WHILE THE LATEST GEFS-BASED SPC-CSU AND NSSL ML GUIDANCE
HAVE TRENDED LOWER TO ONLY 5 PERCENT PEAK AREAS.
D6/FRIDAY STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST RELATIVE SEVERE POTENTIAL,
DESPITE THE PAIR OF GEFS-BASED ML GUIDANCE TRENDING LOWER AND IN
AREAL EXTENT OF 5 PERCENT PEAK PROBS. NEITHER OF THESE HAVE ANY
APPRECIABLE OVERLAP WITH THE PREFERRED ECENS-BASED 5 PERCENT AREAS
FROM NCAR. IN ANY CASE, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY TO
SHIFT FROM AROUND THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS. MOST EC-AIFS ENS
MEMBERS NOW SUPPORT CENTRAL STATES CYCLOGENESIS. BUT PREDICTABILITY
REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS AND AMPLITUDE OF
CYCLOGENESIS, WHICH IS LIKELY RELATED TO THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH. AN AREA-OF-INTEREST FOR
A FUTURE 15 PERCENT SEVERE HIGHLIGHT ROUGHLY INCLUDES THE LOWER MS
TO TN VALLEYS AND DEEP SOUTH.
..GRAMS.. 01/04/2026
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