525
ACUS02 KWNS 060658
SWODY2
SPC AC 060656
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST TUE JAN 06 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WEST AND NORTH TX INTO OK...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS
IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY SLOWER
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE EC-AIFS AND GFS) HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT
FASTER SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD, WITH 60S F DEWPOINTS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE RED RIVER REGION PRIOR TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AS ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES UPON THE
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/NORTH TX INTO OK, WHICH MAY
SPREAD TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY.
INITIAL MUCAPE OF NEAR/ABOVE 500 J/KG AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT
NEAR/AFTER 03Z ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TX, BUT THE BULK OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. THE BUOYANCY PROFILE
WILL BE HAMPERED BY POOR MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND LINGERING
NEAR-SURFACE STABILITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM
SECTOR, RESULTING IN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ANY
ORGANIZED CELLS/CLUSTERS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR
STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN A FAVORABLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, A MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT, BEFORE BUOYANCY BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DEPLETED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH, THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED REGARDING ANY TORNADO THREAT.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH SPORADIC LIGHTNING FLASHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST, AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (LESS THAN -30C AT 500 MB) WILL
SUPPORT MEAGER BUOYANCY (WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG),
PRIMARILY NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS CONVECTION,
THOUGH THE VERY WEAK BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
..DEAN.. 01/06/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page