838
ACUS02 KWNS 061717
SWODY2
SPC AC 061716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST TUE JAN 06 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
A LOW-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. RELATED LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL FAVOR A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF
WEAKLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE INTO A COOL/STATICALLY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS, COMBINED WITH
MODESTLY STEEPENED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PRECEDING THE TROUGH, WILL
YIELD AROUND 500 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR.
A BAND OF WARM-ADVECTION-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO OK DURING THE
06-12Z TIME FRAME. DESPITE LIMITED BUOYANCY, 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY PROMOTE A COUPLE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS AND SMALL LINE
SEGMENTS, THOUGH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THAT EVOLVE.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A ROBUST MIDLEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, A STRONGLY FORCED, LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE
BAND IS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT OVERSPREADING THE REGION. WHILE
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, THE COMBINATION OF WEAK
BUOYANCY AND LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE-GUST POTENTIAL.
..WEINMAN.. 01/06/2026
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