818
ACUS48 KWNS 070917
SWOD48
SPC AC 070915
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CST WED JAN 07 2026
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
..DISCUSSION
..D4/SATURDAY
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS EVIDENT FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CAROLINAS, MID ATLANTIC, AND POSSIBLY OHIO VALLEY ON
D4/SATURDAY, BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF A DEEP AND
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. STRONGLY SHEARED
CONVECTION WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE ONGOING SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, FROM PARTS OF MS/AL INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER, LONGEVITY AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IN THESE
REGIONS IS UNCERTAIN, AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH NORTHEASTWARD
EXTENT, AND STRONGER ASCENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISPLACED NORTH OF
THE WARM SECTOR WITH TIME.
..D5/SUNDAY - D8/WEDNESDAY
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH COASTAL NC AND THE FL
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY, BUT WEAK ASCENT AND BUOYANCY ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE
SEVERE-STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..DEAN.. 01/07/2026
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