213
ACUS02 KWNS 071724
SWODY2
SPC AC 071723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST WED JAN 07 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM OKLAHOMA INTO
PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
WITHIN A BELT OF BROAD/ENHANCED MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, A
NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONGLY FORCED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING/SPREADING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WHILE POOR
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT BUOYANCY FOR THESE STORMS, 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN, THOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS THAT CAN EVOLVE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND
EVENTUALLY THE LOWER OH VALLEY VICINITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, IN TANDEM WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW. HERE, BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATED BUOYANCY WILL BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT, THOUGH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR (TO INCLUDE A 50-KT LOW-LEVEL JET) WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. FARTHER SOUTHEAST, RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A BAND OF STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN BROAD/MOIST
CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. WHILE THESE STORMS WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WARM
SECTOR, STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL YIELD A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
RISK.
..ARIZONA
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS PARTS OF AZ, AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL
COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION, THOUGH BUOYANCY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MEAGER FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT.
..WEINMAN.. 01/07/2026
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