625
ACUS01 KWNS 080048
SWODY1
SPC AC 080047
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST WED JAN 07 2026
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FROM WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA.
..WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE, AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS EVENING, AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH,
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA, WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOIST AIRMASS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THIS AIRMASS, WHERE A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE, MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE
FROM NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS EASTWARD, SUGGESTING THAT ANY STORMS
THAT CAN INITIATE WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AT FIRST. SOME OF THE
CELLS COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED LATER TONIGHT, AS THE CAPPED
AIRMASS SHIFTS EASTWARD DUE TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA HAVE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS, WITH 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 C/KM. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT. FOR CELLS THAT BECOME SURFACE-BASED, A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE SHOULD BE IN THE 08Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME.
..BROYLES.. 01/08/2026
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