072
ACUS02 KWNS 080701
SWODY2
SPC AC 080659
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST THU JAN 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF LA/MS
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND WESTERN/NORTHERN AL...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY FROM LOUISIANA INTO
PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
..EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE
MID-SOUTH. AS AN UPSTREAM MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT, WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
SEASONABLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS CYCLONE, AND LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE WITH TIME AS THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO VARY SOMEWHAT REGARDING THE EXTENT OF PHASING BETWEEN
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THERE ARE ALSO VARYING SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF
EARLY-DAY CONVECTION, AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT HAMPERS WARM-SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION AS LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS.
EARLY-DAY STORMS WITHIN THE MODEST WARM-ADVECTION REGIME FROM EAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY COULD POSE A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT OF
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. AN INCREASE IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AS LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH AN
ATTENDANT DAMAGING-WIND AND TORNADO THREAT THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, IF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION BECOMES
WIDESPREAD WITH INCREASINGLY PROMINENT OUTFLOW (AS INDICATED BY SOME
00Z HREF MEMBERS), THE MAGNITUDE AND NORTH/EAST EXTENT OF THE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT MAY BE RELATIVELY LIMITED. THE GREATEST
RELATIVE CONFIDENCE IN AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS CURRENTLY
ACROSS PARTS OF LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS, WITH A MORE CONDITIONAL
THREAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA.
..DEAN.. 01/08/2026
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