832
ACUS03 KWNS 080829
SWODY3
SPC AC 080828
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST THU JAN 08 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
..SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS ON SATURDAY, AS AN EMBEDDED MIDLEVEL CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC, AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING FROM
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE STRONG, AND SEASONABLY RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT.
ORGANIZED CELLS/CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE D2/FRIDAY PERIOD
MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY, WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND, AND POTENTIALLY
A TORNADO THREAT WHERE VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAN
PERSIST. LONGEVITY OF THE THREAT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH AN EXPECTED TENDENCY FOR WEAKENING BUOYANCY
AND DIMINISHING ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
VIRGINIA BEFORE THE THREAT DIMINISHES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
A MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR AREAS FORECAST TO BE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS SURFACE-LOW TRACK. A SLIGHT RISK WAS
CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MS INTO AL AND WESTERN GA, AS A
CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT FROM LATE D2/FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT DEFERRED TO FUTURE OUTLOOKS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE IMPACT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE D3/SATURDAY PERIOD.
..DEAN.. 01/08/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page