895
ACUS48 KWNS 080918
SWOD48
SPC AC 080916
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CST THU JAN 08 2026
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
..DISCUSSION
ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED-RANGE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH COASTAL NC AND PARTS OF FL ON
D4/SUNDAY, IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS, BUT ASCENT AND BUOYANCY WITHIN THE REMAINING WARM
SECTOR APPEAR TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. FOR D5/MONDAY
THROUGH D8/THURSDAY, GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE
OF MULTIPLE FRONTAL INTRUSIONS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. SOME GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE 00Z
ECMWF) INDICATES THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF
THE FL PENINSULA BY MID WEEK, IN ASSOCIATION WITH RENEWED UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, WITH
GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTING ONLY WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS LOW.
..DEAN.. 01/08/2026
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