344
ACUS01 KWNS 081236
SWODY1
SPC AC 081235
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 AM CST THU JAN 08 2026
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OK...FAR SOUTHEAST KS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A
BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOW/MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS.
..SYNOPSIS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALSO NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHWEST TX. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. EXPECTATION IS FOR BOTH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LEAD
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO CONTINUE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD, RESULTING IN
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM OK THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND INTO
THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS TODAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL SUPPORT MODEST BUOYANCY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA,
AND IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA AND AZ THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE AS WELL.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS LIKELY
SUPPORTING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM
SOUTHWEST OK INTO SOUTHWEST TX. EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS LINE TO
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, INTO AN AIRMASS THAT IS QUICKLY
MODIFYING AMID STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MANY SITES IN OK
ARE OBSERVING DEWPOINTS 25 TO 35 DEG F HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE ARE CURRENTLY ELEVATED, BUT THERE
COULD BE A TREND TOWARDS A MORE SURFACE-BASED CHARACTER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AMID A COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM
CENTRAL OK THROUGH NORTHEAST OK INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MO AND FAR
SOUTHEAST KS, FROM AROUND 13Z THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z, THE QUICK
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN OUTPACING OF THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF MO
MAXING OUT AROUND 58-60 DEG F.
GIVEN THE ROBUST SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE (RECENT KTLX VAD SAMPLED
OVER 35 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR AND OVER 55 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR), THIS
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE THE OVERALL RISK
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO. RECENTLY ISSUED MCD
#0006 ADDRESSES THE NEAR-TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.
..LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER HERE THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH,
LIKELY REMAINING THE 50S, BUT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ROBUST
WIND FIELDS COULD STILL RESULT IN DAMAGING GUSTS, PARTICULARLY NEAR
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH NORTHWEST MO, SOUTHERN/EASTERN
IA, AND SOUTHERN WI. WIND PROBABILITIES WERE EXPANDED NORTHWESTWARD
GIVEN ANTICIPATED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. STRONG GUSTS ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW, BUT LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP THIS TIME ISOLATED AS
WELL.
..SOUTHERN AZ
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ARE FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS AZ TODAY. SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BUT COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD STILL SUPPORT LIMITED BUOYANCY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ROBUST MID-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, A FEW STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, OVERALL COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5%.
..MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER 04Z
WHEN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BUOYANCY WILL BE MODEST, BUT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS.
..MOSIER/BENTLEY.. 01/08/2026
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