825
ACUS11 KWNS 090150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090150
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-090245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CST THU JAN 08 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 090150Z - 090245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A NARROW, LOW-TOPPED, BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY POSE AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO. A WW IS
UNLIKELY, THOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 0145 UTC, REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITHIN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION BAND WAS
SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER PORTIONS OF IL/MO. COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST HAVE
STEADILY OVERSPREAD A NARROW PLUME OF MEAGER SURFACE MOISTURE
(DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S F). LIMITED BUOYANCY (MUCAPE ~ 500
J/KG) HAS SO FAR PREVENTED MUCH STORM ORGANIZATION OR LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER, CONTINUED ALBEIT WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND MOISTENING COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO BRIEFLY ORGANIZE GIVEN VERY
STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS. A LINEAR STORM MODE IS MOST PROBABLE, BUT
BREAKS IN THE LINE, OR SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS FARTHER SOUTH COULD
SUPPORT SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. GIVEN THIS, AND
STRONG FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE, (1-3KM AGL WINDS
40-60 KT) ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY LARGE SRH (0-1KM 400-600 M2/S2).
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR A LOCALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
THE MEAGER CAPE AND STRONG SURFACE STABILITY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
APPARENT FARTHER NORTH OVER NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S F. SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY GREATER THREAT
FOR STRONG GUSTS MAY MATERIALIZE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL WHERE
INSTABILITY IS GREATER. STILL, GIVEN THE KINEMATIC FIELDS, AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
REGION.
..LYONS/GLEASON.. 01/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38509038 39639024 40828917 41368853 41508775 41428697
41338675 40818655 40238689 39028762 38008862 37908961
38509038
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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