892
ACUS01 KWNS 091202
SWODY1
SPC AC 091201
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 AM CST FRI JAN 09 2026
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES.
..MS/AL THIS MORNING
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF MS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN A MOIST SURFACE AIR MASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S, AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. VAD
PROFILES SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR SOME CONCERN FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO THIS MORNING AS ACTIVITY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN AL. HOWEVER, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARM LAYER
IN THE 600-700MB LAYER THAT IS LIKELY LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND
THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK.
..TX/LA THIS AFTERNOON
STRONG, BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY, WITH SEVERAL SMALL
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM SOUTH TX INTO SOUTHERN AR. THE AIR MASS
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT WILL DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL POSE A RISK A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
..LA/MS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
BY LATE AFTERNOON, AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LA, SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MS.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK, BUT SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR WILL POSE A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
..SOUTHERN MS/AL OVERNIGHT
THE CONSENSUS OF CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL BECOME
FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
MS INTO SOUTHERN AL. DURING THIS PERIOD, MOST MODELS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET, WITH
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
AND A FEW TORNADOES - DESPITE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.
..HART/KERR.. 01/09/2026
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