431
ACUS11 KWNS 091309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091308
MSZ000-LAZ000-091515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 AM CST FRI JAN 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 091308Z - 091515Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF INTENSIFYING NEAR-SURFACE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN RECENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN SCATTERED ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE COINCIDED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE WARMING AND MOISTENING SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED INSTABILITY, BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM JACKSON. BUT, THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
OCCURRING AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHRINK AND TREND MORE LINEAR, IN
THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ACCELERATING NORTHEAST
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT, POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER SIMILAR MESOVORTEX INTENSIFICATION ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK
FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SEEMS LIKELY TO
DIMINISH SHORTLY, IF IT HASN'T ALREADY.
..KERR/HART.. 01/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 33758928 33858826 32448857 30968940 30549056 30959106
31689024 32588979 33758928
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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