923
ACUS01 KWNS 091632
SWODY1
SPC AC 091630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST FRI JAN 09 2026
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. A FEW TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
..SOUTHERN LA NORTHEASTWARD INTO MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON
A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF FULLY MODIFIED GULF AIR (SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR
70 DEG F) WITHIN A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT WARM-AIR ADVECTION REGIME
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL PROBABLY YIELD A CONTINUATION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL HEATING OF THE MOIST
AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SOME WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS
BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING VIA THE JACKSON, MS AND HAMMOND, LA
WSR-88D VADS, AND THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME,
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY CONTINUE WITH A STRONGER STORM OR TWO.
..TX/LA/MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE
MULTI-LAYER SHIELD OF CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX NORTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN LA. AHEAD OF A LARGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A COUPLE OF
MINOR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN
THE LOW LEVELS, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE NORTHWEST
DELIMITER OF THE MOIST/UNSTABLE SECTOR BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST TX INTO THE ARK-LA-MISS LATER TONIGHT. THE
AIR MASS SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT WILL DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO EVENTUAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER TX INTO LA
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO LA/MS THIS EVENING AND MS/AL
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL POSE A RISK A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. TOWARDS
THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST LA INTO CENTRAL MS, 700-MB FLOW
(PER EC MODEL GUIDANCE) IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY. THIS
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ENLARGING OF THE
HODOGRAPHS WILL PROBABLY COINCIDE WITH THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF CONCERN
FOR SEVERE STORMS. A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A TORNADO RISK WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD. HOWEVER, A THREAT FOR SCATTERED DAMAGING GUSTS
ACCOMPANYING OTHER ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES AND POSSIBLY A HAIL
THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
..SMITH/HALBERT.. 01/09/2026
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